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Production, continuous production, steel price trend analysts how to look!

Time: 2016-08-16      Publisher:       Browsing times:422

Last month, that is, beginning in July 2016, and steel market has experienced a series of "reduce" capacity "environmental protection inspection" the two key words is closely related to the events: from the sudden arrival of the G20 environmental inspection, to the ministry of industry and information release reduce capacity of the first half of the work; Dense released from the provinces in 2016 and "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" to production plan, to the jiangsu made written pledge to fulfill a military order out DeTiaoGang; From miit stressed can't focus to production to the end of the year, to the tangshan suddenly to implement environmental limit production in late August.

Can say a series of events are related to seemingly scattered but in fact, this author, share with you the following views, welcome to discuss:

1. YaChan can in the short term is not equal to production, but in the long term production will drop;

2. YaChan can the real test is how reduce after long-term production equipment selection;

3. The state has state-owned enterprises merger and reorganization, mainly by raising the threshold of private enterprises, environmental protection is the main means of improving the threshold;

4. Check the status of the late environmental protection is more often, and carry out more strict, not only one or two wave;

5. Can YaChan indicates a short steel mill profits, under the administrative measures to capacity mainly by raising the threshold and standard, keep part of the enterprise profits in the national interest.

First of all, to reduce capacity will directly affect the crude steel production this year? The author's view is affect, but this year is very limited. Data from recent survey (see the research articles this month "capacity can achieve reduce task goal? - major provinces and cities reduce steel capacity research"), about 73.5% of capacity in the sample capacity is already in production, in this part of the production capacity and nearly 70% capacity idle time in more than half a year, and this part of the production capacity is essentially eliminated plan in the next two years, so even though exit as planned capacity, this year on the yield of reduction also won't have too big, but in the long run, such as production capacity, reduce the final will inevitably output decreases, it is beyond doubt, can explain the author for point 1 and 2.

From the perspective of the means of reduce capacity, at present the summary down is the quality of trimming the merger and reorganization in state-owned enterprises, private enterprises by improving the access standards. After all relative to the building steel cluster of private steel mills, most state-owned steel mills have transition to plate, special steel as the main mode of production and sales, are usually higher value-added products, is also relatively extensive USES, production technology and research and development ability is superior to the majority of private steel mills, so for this part of production capacity, reduce must be done by means of combination of advantages, through the way of resources integration keep advantage capacity, capacity of obsolete part do not have advantage.

For private steel companies, from recent events, the environmental protection check can be seen from time to time, intermediate frequency furnace, reduce is the main means of environmental protection, but the final purpose is to improve the threshold of the company's production, improve product quality and social benefits, dispel low-quality low-priced products to industrial upgrading. So we should know is that environmental protection check is not an end, but at this stage to a major means of production, is also one of the means to upgrade the industrial structure, if the capacity is the first step in the upgrade of industrial structure, the environmental protection check must be throughout the whole to the action of capacity, in late July the raid is just the first wave, the late great probability through the way of or combination of events on a regular basis to keep checking the continued effects of the environmental protection, this explains the third and the fourth of my point of view of inner link.

Fifth point of view is to re-examine formation in recent years, the only steel loss condition can advance to capacity, the extension of the idea is as long as to capacity is still at the stage, the thinking of short steel mills profit is sustained and effective. This author skepticism and even negative, from the logical steel helps to capacity loss, there is a causal relationship, but the premise is the only means to capacity depends on the market, and from the point of view the situation clearly mainly rely on administrative means, so profits to go to the influence of capacity has been greatly weakened.

And from the Angle of industrial business cycle, when in the cycle of stock price continues to fall on the right side, short profits reversed transmission enterprise production has rationality, but when industrial enterprises into the low stock prices rebounded on the left side of the early, keep on doing empty profit does not conform to the industry trends, the current steel industry is in this period, has entered the periodic repair big probability interval, in theory at this time of operation should be treated to a complete thinking more profit is more appropriate, short-term operation still need to pay attention to specific implementation capacity.

(editor: Tian Tian source: China steel net)


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